2009年8月11日星期二

問銀神

我相信很多人也嘗試過用擲亳的方法來處理二選一的難題。雖然我非經常性地用這方法來處理問題,但我卻不知道這個決定方法還有「問銀神」的別名,直到最近聽到有人這樣說才知道。

巧合地,我在舊雜誌中看到一段文章,一個很重要的問題,就是用了「問銀神」的方法來做決定。

NET WORTH November 18, 2008 (SCMP)

The trouble I've seen ...
UP FRONT
Richard Witts
Nov 18, 2008


In 1973 when the market was collapsing, two Chinese members burst into my office at the Hong Kong stock exchange shouting at each other. “I sold you 10,000,” yelled one. “No, it was 1,000,” cried the other.” Mr Witts, you have to sort this out.” Indeed, but how, since I had only been general manager of the exchange for about six months and was unsure of the regulations for settling this kind of dispute – particularly as there were no witnesses. But with prices collapsing these men needed a solution more or less immediately.

So I pulled a coin from my pocket and said: “I am going to toss this coin. Heads it was 10,000 and tails it was 1,000. Is that OK?” They agreed and it came up heads. They shook hands and to my relief off they went. Maybe there was something in this approach which appealed to them – to let chance decide.



我想說的,就是世界沒有規定你解決複雜問題必定要用複雜方法。

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